Όπως ακριβώς δημοσιεύθηκε στη λίστα HELLENIC-PROFESSORS-PHDS@HEC.GREECE.ORG (οι επισημάνσεις δικές μου).
Dear colleagues,
I felt compelled to provide some answers to certain replies to my
original and follow-up postings. Although I deeply respect several of
the correspondents that raised objections to my arguments, I believe
that there are echoes of denial, a misplaced optimism
and a rose-color glasses view of the world in their rebuttals. The
situation that Greece finds itself is painful for all of us. However,
denial and misplaced optimism is not an answer at any level.
Some claim that Greece has not lost any more sovereignty than other
members of the union because of the EU stability pact. This is a wrong
assessment at many levels. Under the stability pact, no country really
loses sovereignty until it has to invoke the
provisions of the pact. Then, woe to this country. The provisions of
this pact are onerous. But as onerous as they are, they are not nearly
as painful and as extensive as the revocation of sovereignty that has
been imposed on Greece. The stability pact
does not include provisions to have an entire country's revenue
sequestered to a special escrow account to which the lenders have prime
and unfettered access. In the affairs of modern states, this level of
loss of revenue has only resulted upon military conquest.
To deny this and to claim that the situation that Greece finds itself
resembles that of other states in the EU is not only pure denial, it is
also dangerous. It is dangerous because it lulls many to inactivity and
a false comprehension of reality.
The statement is also made that this crisis is forcing the faster
integration of Europe into a federal state. This claim again requires
suspension of disbelief. It is a great misreading of the situation. In
fact, exactly the opposite is happening. Europe
is clearly breaking up along various fault lines. In fact, the
stability pact itself will create even more fault lines as states that
invoke its provisions and request assistance would have to fall under
the tutelage of the strong. Conditions would be dictated
on them, determined mostly by the whim of the powerful.
Let's look closely on the Greek reality. Despite the pronouncements of
the Greek government, the troika has essentially given up on Greece. It
is now well accepted that the "2nd bailout" will fail. The "haircut"
of the private investors (commonly referred
to as the PSI) is likely to fail to attract a decent number of them as
the CDSs would be far more attractive to certain of them. Even if it
succeeds as advertized, it would make a small contribution. The cost of
servicing the debt would decline from 17%
of GDP to 13% of GDP. And this would be before the new loans totaling
130 billion euros come into play. At the end of the process, Greece
would have the unsupportable burden of a debt at 160% GDP. The loans
themselves are quite inadequate to cover the fast
declining income of the government caused by the downward spiral of the
Greek economy. The "2nd bailout" was designed to cover very modest
deficits in the next couple of years. The budget deficit for 2012 was
projected at 1.5% but now it appears likely that
it would be much larger than the original modest estimate. The January
2012 numbers show that income declined by 5% for the month while
spending increased by 8%. Thus, for the Greek rescue to work, the
troika has to provide far more money than has already
been pledged. Unfortunately for the Euro-believers, the German finance
ministry made it very clear that no additional funds would become
available. Greece is really expected to default this year and exit the
Euro. In fact, it would be shoved in this direction
by our "friends" in the EU. Again, German officials made it clear that
they need the stability funds to protect the rest of the endangered
states (primarily Italy and Spain) and they are not willing to spend
another dime on Greece. My calculations indicate
that by October of this year, the Greek state would run out of funds
and it would be unable to meet its obligations internally (the creditors
would have been paid, of course).
It is really important here for the Euro-believers to look at the facts
of the last two years with open eyes. When the Greek default became a
possibility in early 2010, our "European friends" panicked and tried to
save their banks. The "bailout" for Greece
was hastily prepared; a crushing austerity was imposed on the country
with the contribution of local Greek quislings. The austerity program
crippled the Greek economy. The decline of the Greek economy was the
deepest recorded by a modern country in the last
150 years, even surpassing the Great Depression in its decline in GDP.
But while Greece was fast sinking into poverty and desperation, our
"European friends" put together a stability fund as an effective
firewall for the spread of the "contagion". Now, having
destroyed the Greek economy with their idiotic neoliberalist
ministrations, enabled by weak-kneed, collaborationist Greek
governments, they are ready to abandon their victim to manage as well as
it can. With such friends, who really needs enemies? Our "European
friends" are far more dangerous and far more destructive than any
"eastern danger" one can devise. If one adds their open and
unrestrained racism to their extensive harm of Greece, one cannot find a
more virulent, repressive and reprehensible enemy in the
whole modern history of the Greek state.
The statement has also been made that the competitiveness of the Greek
economy has been in decline for the past 30 years, not just since 2001.
This is only partly correct. Greece has suffered extensive
de-industrialization since 1981, but, despite the effects
of this process, the competitiveness of surviving sectors was not
undermined until the incorporation of the country in the EMU in 1998.
The de-industralization of the country itself was a process that was
initiated by the inclusion of Greece in the EU and
had a determined effect on Greek living standards. Although these
increased, they increased at a much slower pace than the EU-15. Thus,
by 2001, the income gap between Greece and the EU-15 had increased by
20% to the detriment of Greece. Greece became a
study in "divergence". It does not really take a Euro-skeptic to see
that participation in the EU has been deleterious for Greece and that
its participation in the Euro has been a terminal disease.
It is correct to state that devaluation itself does not provide a
permanent solution. However, the return to the drachma is not about
devaluation. It is about regaining one's capability of conducting one's
monetary policy instead of this policy being decided
by some indifferent bankers in Frankfurt. The respite that would be
offered would allow the Greek people to decide on real reforms, not the
ridiculous neo-liberalist policies pushed by the troika that reek of Ayn
Rand reprehensibly idiotic philosophy; the
extreme conservative moralism that permeates them has nothing to
offer. These policies have failed miserably wherever and whenever they
have been introduced. I really cannot understand that members of this
board believe that the away ahead for Greece passes
through poverty, wages of penury and a health system more appropriate
for third world countries.
Those who are afraid of the return to our own currency keep stating that
such return would also mean the return of the "old bad ways". I find
these statements difficult to stomach on many levels. Primarily, I find
them unacceptable because of their defeatism
and resignation. They are also unacceptable because they totally
ignore almost 200 years of modern Greek history. The Greek state arose
in 1830 in a land devastated after 10 years of vicious war with
substantive armies in a very small corner of the world.
This state, with the drachma and its "old bad ways" managed to built a
relatively modern economy and society and it managed to quintuple its
area in the short period of its existence. And it did so without
despoiling and exploiting others in this world.
Thus, in summary, one does not have to be a Euro-skeptic to see that the
Greek involvement in the EU and the Euro has been an utter disaster;
that the sooner this situation is redressed the better it would be for
the country and the average Greek. Our neighbor
Turkey (that some perceive with dread), seems to be doing excellently
without the EU and the Euro, probably precisely because it is outside
these structures. And one does not have to be a skeptic to see that our
"old bad ways" have been highly successful
in building a modern state despite the fact that from 1920 to 1974
Greece was caught in a maelstrom of wars (civil and external), as well
as revolution and counter-revolution. Now it is the time to remember
what we have accomplished, to overthrow the European
racist tyrants that rule the country and to rely on our resources in
building a modern, fair and affluent society. Greece is alone. This is a
fact. And the sooner we grasp this reality, the better we would be.
Best regards,
Anastassios D. Retzios, Ph.D
President, Bay Clinical R&D Services
San Ramon, California, USA
Boulionis Konstantin
Panos Kammenos
Alexandros Michas
KATERINA
Lila Stambouloglou
